Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Jun 12 2024 - 12Z Fri Jun 14 2024

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, Middle
Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern
tip of Florida through Friday morning...

...There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories over northern/central
California, Southwest, and western Texas on Wednesday...

A front extending from the Northern Plains to the Northern Rockies and
Great will move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley then
westward to the Central Rockies by Friday. The boundary will trigger
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of northern Minnesota.
Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley through Thursday
morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In
addition, there will be an added threat of large hail, two inches or
greater over Minnesota to northwestern Iowa.

Furthermore, a stationary front with waves will extend across northern
Florida and across the Gulf Coast, and the combination of tropical
moisture over Florida will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rain over parts of southern Florida. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall through Thursday morning. 
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.  Also, showers and thunderstorms will develop along parts
of the Western Gulf Coast and Central/Southern High Plains. Furthermore, a
cold pool of air over New England will trigger daytime showers with
embedded thunderstorms.

On Thursday, the Midwest front will move over parts of the Ohio Valley,
creating showers and severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Central Plains from
Thursday through Friday morning.  The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. The system will also produce showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast on Thursday evening into Friday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains.

In addition, the tropical moisture will continue to produce showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southern Florida. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall from
Thursday into Friday morning.  The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Elsewhere, onshore flow will contribute to the development of rain over
parts of the Pacific Northwest Coast on Friday morning. Meanwhile,
upper-level ridging will strengthen over California and the Southwest on
Wednesday, and a subtropical high will form over North-Central Mexico,
leading to Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over
Northern/Central California and Southwest and Excessive Heat Watches in
western Texas. It is crucial for residents and individuals involved in
outdoor activities to stay informed and take immediate and necessary
precautions.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php