In a move that seems to have taken everyone by surprise, the young Saudi deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman, son of the king, announced this morning at a brief press conference – itself an unusual event – the formation of an Islamic military alliance to fight terrorism. In reply to a question, he said that the new alliance was directed not only against Islamic State but also against any other terrorist organisation.
The Saudi Press Agency published what was described as a joint statement giving a little more information: 34 states have decided to form a military alliance led by Saudi Arabia to fight terrorism, with a joint operations centre in Riyadh. The 34 include most Arab League states, a number of mainly Muslim states mostly in Africa, and Asian countries including Pakistan, Bangladesh and Malaysia. More than 10 other Islamic countries, including Indonesia, are said to have expressed support. One notable inclusion in the list is Qatar, whose relations with Saudi Arabia have been strained. Notable omissions are Iran, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Algeria, Oman and Eritrea.
So far there has been no reaction from most other capitals and little comment in the media. Turkey and Bangladesh have confirmed their participation. The reaction in Jordan seems to be typical: a junior minister responsible for information has told the official Petra news agency that Jordan is always ready to take an active part in any action against terrorism; the report adds almost as an afterthought a reference to the Saudi announcement. Similarly in Egypt, where the Saudi crown prince and deputy crown prince were expected to visit today, the foreign ministry spokesman said merely that Egypt supported all efforts to combat terrorism, making a distinction between the Saudi announcement and the earlier call by the Egyptian president, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, for a joint Arab military force.
First to comment was the anonymous blogger on Saudi affairs, Mujtahidd, always ready to shoot from the hip and always critical of the Saudi regime and of Bin Salman in particular. Inevitably he is sharply negative: citing no practical arrangements, no joint forces, no military co-ordination, no defined objectives or methods; calling it merely a verbal understanding which adds nothing to the intelligence and political co-ordination led by America.
Mujtahidd argues that Bin Salman is responding to the western perception that his cousin, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, is the leading scourge of terrorism, and to criticism of himself, for example by the Germans and some US newspapers. This move is simply to show that his role is No 1 in the fight against terrorism, as much as to say: Bin Nayef may have dealt with terrorism inside the kingdom, but I will deal with it throughout the Islamic world.
The ceasefire in Yemen is due to begin today as the warring parties meet for talks in Switzerland. If it holds, Saudi Arabia and its allies will have the opportunity to refocus their military efforts against Isis. If it does not, as is more likely, Saudi military resources will remain trapped in the Yemen war and it would not be realistic to expect much change.
Mujtahidd is not an unbiased observer, but his comments are to the point. As one experienced in international conference organisation and communique drafting I can scarcely believe that this bare Saudi announcement, lacking any detail of how the participating states were represented, will prove to be more than a piece of paper. It is good news if Saudi Arabia is focusing on the terrorist issue and can rally the support of so many others, but there is a long way to go before practical results can be expected.
Perhaps the most sinister aspect of the move is the omission from the list not only of Iran, which was to be expected given the Saudi propensity to see the Muslim world as split between Sunnis and Shia, but also of Iraq, inevitably on the Iranian side of the line because of its Shia majority. If the new alliance becomes a real force, it virtually drives Iran towards the formation of a rival Shia alliance. That would have destructive consequences, as we are already seeing in Yemen.